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SUMMARY:® Earth system model prototype for seamless forecast construction
 : Evaluation/validation from weather to monthly time scales and tailored s
 ervices development for sectors of development.
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20231207T100000Z
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20231207T102000Z
DTSTAMP;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20260608T121411Z
UID:indico-contribution-1898@events.chpc.ac.za
DESCRIPTION:Speakers: Mohau Mateyisi (Council for Scientific and Industria
 l Research)\nProjection of  Droughts in Africa within different extents of
  global warming as performed on The CHPC’s Lengau Cluster\n\nAfrican tem
 peratures are projected to rise rapidly under low mitigation climate chang
 e futures\, at 1.5 to 2 times the global rate of temperature increase. Thi
 s high regional climate sensitivity in combination with the relatively low
  adaptive capacity implies that the global climate change mitigation effor
 t is of crucial importance to Africa. Against this background the Standard
  Precipitation Index (SPI) with 36-month accumulation time (relevant to ag
 ricultural and hydrological drought) was considerd for six regional downsc
 alings over Africa under a low mitigation scenario (RCP8.5) and for 1.5\, 
 2 and 3 °C of global warming. The associated projected changes in maximum
  temperatures and very hot days were also considered. .Using the Coordinat
 ed Regional Downscaling Experiment-Africa (CORDEX) regional climate models
 \, we downscale six global climate models of the Coupled Model Inter-compa
 rison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to high resolution with the aid of computing
  power from the south African (CHPC) Centre for High Performance Computing
 ’s Lengau Cluster.The analysis reveals that the southern African is alre
 ady experiencing increased conditions of dryness and is likely heading tow
 ards a regional climate system that may well be associated with more frequ
 ently occurring droughts. Under 3 °C these increased conditions of drough
 t are projected to occur within the presence of a drastic increase in maxi
 mum temperature and very hot days. Such a change\, of a hot and drier clim
 ate system becoming even hotter and drier would offer very few options for
  climate change adaptation. It is likely that under 2 °C of global warmin
 g this general pattern of increased dryness will already be manifested ove
 r southern Africa\, but this regional world is not projected to be signifi
 cantly drier at 1.5 °C of warming compared to its present-day climate (in
 dicating a benefit for southern Africa for the 1.5 °C global goal being a
 chieved). For East Africa\, increased wetness and potentially more floods 
 are projected under 3 °C of warming\, a pattern that may well be manifest
 ed (although with reduced amplitude) under 2 °C and 1.5 °C of warming. A
 ssociated increases in wetness are also projected across the Sahel\, which
  under 1.5 °C may be a benefit\, given that the detrimental effects of ri
 sing temperatures will be reduced.\n\nhttps://events.chpc.ac.za/event/125/
 contributions/1898/
LOCATION:Skukuza 1-1-1+3 - Ingwe + Mhelembe
URL:https://events.chpc.ac.za/event/125/contributions/1898/
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